✨ Hey there this is a free edition of next play’s newsletter, where we share under-the-radar opportunities to help you figure out what’s next in your journey. Join our private Slack community here and access $1000s of dollars of product discounts here.
There are a few dozen private companies worth more than $20B today. They are all household names, from SpaceX, OpenIA, and Stripe to Ramp, Anysphere, and Anduril.
We partnered with Prospect to identify the 20 companies that have the highest chance of joining this illustrious club by becoming worth $20B or more in the future.
If you join a company today that becomes worth $20B+ in the future, it will be an enormous tailwind: your equity will appreciate in value, your resume will get stamped with an iconic company, you will learn the right lessons from building a generational business, and you will become part of a blue chip company alumni group.
Prospect combines software tools and predictive machine learning models to help employees earn more from their startup equity. Their team (Khosla Ventures, SignalFire, Rippling) has trained an ML model on the same data sources VCs use for sourcing: venture funding rounds, LinkedIn data, web traffic, and secondary market prices. Their model evaluates many factors, including how much money a company has raised, the quality of their investors, how the quality of their investors is changing over time, their fundraising velocity, their headcount velocity (broken down by department), changes in their web traffic, and changes in their prices on the secondary market, if relevant.
Prospect has backtested their model looking at these variables and the interaction between them (like raising a Series B from Founders Fund with strong engineering headcount growth and explosive web traffic) for great companies like Stripe, failed companies, and every company in between. Instead of using the model to invest in startups like a VC would, they use it to answer questions and frame ROI for employees: what are the highest potential startups to work at? Should I exercise my options? Should I sell in this tender?
Methodology for this list:
Privately held, venture-backed startups
Last valuation is $10B or less (as its not very interesting to project Rippling at $17B becoming worth >$20B)
Sorted by the soonest date Prospect’s model projects them being worth more than $20 billion
#25 - Groq
Current Valuation: $6.9B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 1.22X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 6 years (90th percentile)
#24 - Cerebras
Current Valuation: $8.1B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 1.22X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 6 years (90th percentile)
#23 - Neuralink
Current Valuation: $9.0B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 1.24X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 6 years (90th percentile)
#22 - Vercel
Current Valuation: $9.3B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 1.45X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 6 years (90th percentile)
#21 - Flock Safety
Current Valuation: $7.5B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 1.53X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 6 years (90th percentile)
#20 - Clickhouse
Current Valuation: $6.4B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 1.55X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 6 years (90th percentile)
#19 - Redwood Materials
Current Valuation: $6B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 1.59X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 6 years (90th percentile)
#18 - Physical Intelligence
Current Valuation: $5.4B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 2.42
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 4 years (90th percentile)
#17 - Magic
Current Valuation: $3.8B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 1.74X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 6 years (90th percentile)
#16 - Skild
Current Valuation: $4.7B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 1.79X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 6 years (90th percentile)
#15 - Shield AI
Current Valuation: $5.3B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 1.9X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 6 years (90th percentile)
#14 - Fireworks AI
Current Valuation: $4B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 2.06X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 6 years (90th percentile)
#13 - Saronic
Current Valuation: $4B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 2.07X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 6 years (90th percentile)
#12 - Decart
Current Valuation: $3.1B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 2.47X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 6 years (90th percentile)
#11 - Baseten
Current Valuation: $2.2B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 2.99X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 6 years (90th percentile)
#10 - The Bot Company
Current Valuation: $2B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 3.02X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 6 years (90th percentile)
#9 - Cyera
Current Valuation: $6B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 2.36X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 4 years (90th percentile)
#8 - Abridge
Current Valuation: $5.3B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 2.96X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 4 years (90th percentile)
#7 - Reflection AI
Current Valuation: $8B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 1.41X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 2 years (90th percentile)
#6 - Harvey
Current Valuation: $9.3B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 2.00X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 2 years (90th percentile)
#5 - ElevenLabs
Current Valuation: $6.6B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 2.58X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 2 years (90th percentile)
#4 - Glean
Current Valuation: $7.2B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 2.83X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 2 years (90th percentile)
#3 - OpenEvidence
Current Valuation: $6B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 3.31X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 2 years (90th percentile)
#2 - Mercor
Current Valuation: $10B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 1.85X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 2 years (75th percentile)
#1 - Sierra
Current Valuation: $10B
Prospect rating (in 6 years, 75th percentile, after dilution): 1.90X
Earliest date Prospect projects $20B+ valuation: 2 years (75th percentile)
To learn more about these companies, see how they compare to other startups, and view the full methodology, click here.
No comments:
Post a Comment