🔮 Exponential View #553: The story of 100 trillion tokens; China’s chip win; superhuman persuasion, Waymo ethics, Polymarket & hydrology++An insider’s view of AI and exponential technologies
Hi all, In this edition:
In my latest video, I break down how I think about the overlapping technology S-curves that are driving the market upheaval:
Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify RIP chatbot, hello glass slipperOpenRouter, an aggregator routing traffic across 300+ AI models for five million developers, released an analysis of 100 trillion tokens of usage. Their data offers a unique, cross-platform look at the market. It’s worth a deep read, but for now I’d highlight two directions: First, the “glass slipper” effect – retention is driven by “first-to-solve,” not “first-to-market.” When a model is the first to unlock a specific, high-friction workload (like a complex reasoning chain), the cohort that adopts it shows effectively zero churn, even when cheaper or faster competitors emerge. This confirms my long-held view: customers don’t buy benchmarks; they buy solutions. Once a model fits the problem, like a glass slipper, switching costs become irrelevant. Second, the shift to agentic inference is undeniable. In less than 12 months, reasoning-optimised models have surged from negligible to over 50% of all token volume. Consequently, average prompt lengths have quadrupled to over 6,000 tokens, while completion lengths have tripled. The insight here is that users aren’t becoming more verbose; the systems are. We are seeing the mechanical footprint of agentic loops iterating in the background.
China’s chip tipping pointChina’s drive for semiconductor independence is accelerating faster than predicted. The recent Shanghai IPO of Moore Threads, a leading AI chipmaker, surged 425% on debut, signaling voracious domestic capital support for “China’s Nvidia” alternatives. This aligns with a bold forecast from Bernstein, that China is on track to produce more AI chips than it consumes by 2026, effectively neutralizing the intended chokehold of US export controls... Subscribe to Exponential View to unlock the rest.Become a paying subscriber of Exponential View to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content. A subscription gets you:
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🔮 Exponential View #553: The story of 100 trillion tokens; China’s chip win; superhuman persuasion, Waymo ethics,…
Saturday, 6 December 2025
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