Keep tabs on AI’s market pulse with our live Boom or Bubble tracker. Sign up here for ongoing insights. 🔮 Exponential View #550: Productivity and jobs; the slop-economy; loving vapes++An insider's view on AI and exponential technologies
Hi, Welcome to our Sunday edition, where we explore the latest developments, ideas, and questions shaping the exponential economy. Enjoy the weekend reading! AI, jobs and productivityThe St. Louis FED estimates that generative AI may have increased labor productivity by up to 1.3% – and has had positive effects on industry-level productivity. While that may sound modest, a sustained 1.3% annual productivity boost would be transformative¹. We’re seeing the micro‑signals of this shift inside firms. A new paper found that AI agents increased code output by 39% without any decline in short-term quality. More telling: for every standard deviation increase in experience, developers accept 6% more agent‑generated code. Senior engineers are simply better at delegation, and delegation is a skill that compounds with time. As AI takes on more execution, the premium – particularly for those entering the workforce – will move from raw output to orchestration. I dug into this question with Ben Zweig of Revelio Labs, which builds its own data-driven view of the labor market. Ben and I share the view that it’s probably too early to really see AI impact in the early hiring. Ben’s perspective is that softening in early hiring is coming from somewhere else:
And to the million-dollar question for parents of “what should my kid study?”, Ben gave two concrete recommendations, which you’ll find at the end of our conversation. AI bubble watch – a weekly update📈 Quick read: AI remains in expansion mode, but funding quality is deteriorating. Details on the week’s movers and dislocations below. Boom/Bubble dashboard update: We’ve added projected trajectories for each of the five key indicators between now and 2029 – the indicator history and outlook is interactive and you can access it for free on the Boom/Bubble website. Movers:
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๐ฎ Exponential View #550: Productivity and jobs; the slop-economy; loving vapes++
Saturday, 15 November 2025
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