This is Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality—my attempt to make myself, and all of you out there in SubStackLand, smarter by writing where I have Value Above Replacement and shutting up where I do not… The Ongoing Trumpist Unmaking of U.S. Network Power: Tariffs, Ambivalence, & the Slow Isolation & Hence DeclineYes, Henry Luce’s “American Century” is now over. Any further questions? Tariffs tax deterrence; & policy volatility prices U.S. reliability out of potential allies’ long-run planning along both...
Yes, Henry Luce’s “American Century” is now over. Any further questions? Tariffs tax deterrence; & policy volatility prices U.S. reliability out of potential allies’ long-run planning along both the geostrategic and international globalized value-chain network economy dimensions. When rules wobble, allies reroute—and America’s promises lose compound interest…
The current exterior situation, deftly summarized by the sharp-witted and observant Andreas Kluth:
This is overstated. But not by much. This is the geostrategic bottom line: Without credible, rules-based trade and steady alliance signaling, the US forfeits its unique network power, and allies’ rational hedging makes “ever-trust again” less likely each cycle. What follows is a predictable erosion dynamic: when tariffs and export controls feel arbitrary, supply chains reroute; when defense commitments oscillate, capitals draft contingency treaties without Washington; when intelligence sharing becomes politicized, joint planning degrades. Network power is multiplicative—trust compounds across trade, finance, tech, and security—so shocks don’t just subtract, they divide. As partners internalize counterparty risk, they invest in redundancy and mini‑laterals, reducing U.S. leverage precisely where collective action is decisive against revisionist powers. Rebuilding requires transparent rules, institutional ballast, and consistent signaling over time; absent that, each episode of unpredictability deepens the discount rate allies apply to American promises, turning doubt into structure rather than merely keeping it at mood. It is unclear what form the human social practice of superpower cold and hot war will take in the rest of the 2000s. Keep reading with a 7-day free trialSubscribe to DeLong's Grasping Reality: Economy in the 2000s & Before to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives. A subscription gets you:
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The Ongoing Trumpist Unmaking of U.S. Network Power: Tariffs, Ambivalence, & the Slow Isolation & Hence Decline
Sunday, 5 October 2025
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